The graph below shows the high, low, and mean forecasts from Reuters Eikon, highlighting the point of view of over 40 financial institutions. (02/02/22)
The indicator below shows where the currency pair is currently trading in the calendar year – giving context on whether now is a good time to make overseas payments. (04/02/22)
The histogram below explains the 6-month currency exchange forecast to show its distribution and put further
context into the 6-month market view. For example, among the 40 plus forecasters, 26 predict that GBPEUR will
be between equal to or greater than 1.2000 in 6 months' time.
It should be noted that the data contained within this document was prior to the ECB meeting on 03/02/22; that
said the market had already started adjusting interest rate expectations due to changing rhetoric from senior
In the first week of February, the single currency has made gains of circa 3% against the US Dollar following the
ECB meeting. This in large was due to the revised bets for an initial 10-basis point hike from September to July
this year as pressure mounts on policymakers in the months ahead to curb stimulus. ECB President Christine
Lagarde commented that with the upside [in inflation] seen in December and January that there was concern
within the council and that the Eurozone is no longer in a low inflation environment.
Moving forward the market will focus on economic data, in particular inflation related data whilst keeping a
close eye on rhetoric from officials. If we start to see evidence of inflation maintaining it current trajectory or a
stronger conviction to use its policy tools to stabilise prices, the market could increase or bring forward its
estimation of monetary policy action. The likely effect will be a stronger single currency in this event.
The most recent forecast has shown a longer-term view (12 months) of the highs and lows narrowing from
1.2821 and 1.0989 to 1.2658 and 1.0989. However, the 6-month forecast highlights that the number of forecasters
calling it above 1.2000 has increased Previously, we saw 13 forecasters predicting that it will be greater than
1.2000 in 6 months, but now there are 26.
However this data was publish prior to the ECB meeting where we saw a change in sentiment.
These are some of the data sets and indicators that we use to support businesses when formulating policy
and/or making decisions on when to make overseas payments, by how much, and for how long.
If you’re looking for a tailored analysis and information to support your decision-making, please feel free to
discuss this with your Lumon Account Manager.
This document is intended to provide you with information on the services Lumon Pay Limited (LPL), Lumon Risk Management Ltd (LRM) and Lumon FX Europe Limited (LEL) offer and should not be interpreted as advice or as a solicitation to offer to buy or sell any currency or as a recommendation to trade.
Lumon Pay Ltd (“LPL”), trading as Lumon, is a company registered in England with its registered address at Building 1, Chalfont Park, Gerrards Cross, Buckinghamshire SL9 0BG. LPL is authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority as an Electronic Money Institution (FRN: 902022).
Lumon FX Europe Limited, trading as Lumon, is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Lumon FX Europe Limited is registered in Ireland. Registered address: 98 Lower Baggot Street, Dublin 2. Registration No. 631617.
Lumon Risk Management Ltd ("LRM"), trading as Lumon, is a company registered in England with registered number 06333730 and registered address at Spaces, Building 1 Chalfont Park, Chalfont St. Peter, Gerrards Cross, England, SL9 0BG. LRM is authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority as an Authorised Payment Institution (FRN: 567835) for the provision of payment services. LRM is also authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority as an investment firm (FRN: 671108)